Terrific article. This is one of the most clear-eyed and on-the-money pieces I’ve read regarding the dissolution of the music industry’s "old world order" from the label perspective.
Your point about how AI enables the infinite saturation of the market with soundalikes is touching on something really important. While that is certainly true for new copyrights, the real intrigue lies in how the courts will ultimately define IP infringement for legacy catalogs. If AI can digitally recreate a Rolling Stones track—reproducing every instrument, nuance, and even the original "mistakes"—and then layer a perfect Mick Jagger-like vocal on top, how close is too close? (Assuming, of course, that Sir Mick hasn't already granted his blessing for a fee and that his contract with ABKCO didn't prevent him doing so).
The one area where I’d suggest further nuance is in the relative market valuation of Spotify versus the IP owners. If the majors refused to play tomorrow, Spotify would go down the drain; no one wants a streaming platform that offers only indie music and AI slop. However, if Spotify were to vanish, the record companies would be just fine. Amazon, Google, and Apple are all equally capable as presentation platforms.
Spotify is ultimately a redundant utility. While they have sleek interfaces and music discovery algorithms, those are not an insurmountable moat if the larger tech giants decide to get serious about them. The majors, however, are not redundant (even if their utility for new music is now nominal). Given this redundancy, Spotify feels significantly overvalued, whereas the majors' value is at least anchored in unique assets.
The long-term risk for the labels, of course, is that they eventually become mere custodians of an aging catalog. In the long view, it is difficult to predict how well that IP ages as it becomes increasingly distant from the cultural touchstones of the current generation.
Joel - great post. I love your summation at the end. You are right on point with that. The music industry will look completely different… and not soon enough :)
David - all great points. Re: courts, AI and copyright… soundalikes have been verboten for decades and I don’t see that changing. It’s stealing, and if that were to happen all sorts of other IP would be at risk. At least, let’s hope that never happens.
I appreciate this writing Joel. As someone who came up and stayed not on the major side of the music industry, but rather on the independent label side of the music industry (manager of several signed Indy bands, head of digital at a major independent unaffiliated with the majors, and a lifetime in music working with independent artists who started their own labels), I’m curious for your perspective of major vs. indie. Same? I would counter that the value of brand association in breaking bands with both with an existing following, or simply with one component (great songs, touring needs work) has almost always been significantly more valuable on the independent side of the deck, of course depending on the independent, and that absolutely makes a difference for the right artist with the right type of music. I would also counter that the independents have broken a lot of ground, both on deal models that go beyond the traditional 80-20 record deal (50-50 net deals, 50-50 net licensing deals, 80-20 deals coupled with better rates on digital, etc)., and also generally on artistic freedom. Yes, there are still plenty of indie label models that are standard 80-20, and these days more and more management companies are fulfilling components (or all) of the label role you present here, and they can be a long-term, significantly cheaper alternative that can be just as effective. Interesting piece.
I’m not sure there’s much a difference. Slightly different interests maybe. A bit more artist-friendly on the indie side of things, but the model isn’t entirely different between the two. I think the future will rely on a new model, that allows artists to keep their ownership but have a revenue share instead. Less strings attached, same economics of money in and money out. Thanks for the note Dick- I love comments like this!!
There’s no question that new models less centered around unfettered master ownership will emerge (have emerged!). Merge and Touch and Go were two label clients of mine that were net 50-50 deals (with master ownership, however). Your piece is a great thought provoker, and what’s most important about it for a new band coming up is to understand that they have options that didn’t exist when I was a young manager. As with any better deal, however, it’s important to be clear eyed about what you get (freedom, long term ownership), and what you don’t get (brand association, which can be a significant leg up). And what keeping ownership means in terms of doing the work. No matter how you slice it, someone has to do the work, and not every band (or team) understands the depth of work involved. It’s refreshing that so many new options exist for young and old bands alike. Look forward to reading more of what you write!
You're totally right. Once you get the capital then the real work starts. It'll be interesting to see artists start to prop up like actual businesses. Thought leaders like Russ have been doing it for years, but as we see more greasy deals behind the curtains. Starting an artist project is going to start to look more and more like starting a company, if it doesn't already. Thanks again Dick, appreciate you being here
"No matter how you slice it, someone has to do the work, and not every band (or team) understands the depth of work involved." - this 1000%. there is always a way, but someone has to do "the work."
Good read! I read your other post about how the record deal is still operating on principles from 2005. That post + this write-up just reminds me how their is always disruption (streaming, AI etc.) but at the same time companies are consolidating and buying each other, so it just becomes more of the same.
Feels like another theme here is that the industry keeps building tools for scale, while audiences are still rewarding "good music". That gap is only getting wider.
Fascinating read. I agree with most of the points, but we shouldn't forget that the majors are billon dollar moguls who will do everything to protect their power & money. So I think they will evolve eventually (late, as always). Saying the majors will be obsolete soon is a bit too easy imo.
And the majors do have long standing traditional 'I scratch your back if you scratch mine' relationships that shouldn't be underestimated - with DSP's, with radio's, ...
I didn’t say they’d be obsolete, I just said they won’t matter. And as I stated in the article, those relationships people I’m finding more and more are working contract or freelance on retainer. The need for the label itself is becoming less relevant by the day
Really really enjoy your takes, and not just bc I agree with most of them! I agree with 95% of this take so bear with me on this tiny pushback.
The vector I see left out of most forecasting and modeling is actually the most basic and often therefore the most invisible: human nature by way of evolutionary biology.
In the same way that the industry coined the death of the monoculture and was espousing the death of the megastar mid covid… immediately followed by olivia, sabrina, charli, chappel etc. I think their mistake wasn’t in the math, they were just missing the variable that underpins so much of the human experience, the need to fit in.
And for that reason alone, I suspect master recordings will retain tremendous value, and fans will always be rallying around cultural touch-points… because it feels safer to like the things other people also like.
I love a pushback. That’s where the progress happens. I agree that masters will always HAVE value, but when it’s not the definitive sole piece of work, naturally wouldn’t supply and demand kick in and it be worth a bit less? Food for thought
That’s my pushback, the function of the need to fit in IS the sorting mechanism that demands definitive sole pieces of work (almost always attached to a human) bc we determine safety via trust, and our brains are still running software from 10k yrs ago where trusting humans was more life or death than it is today.
It’s crazy that PROs and other IP registration company’s haven’t kept up with the integration of AI for things like this. It can likely be automated super simply. Along with royalty payouts, but that’s another conversation
Exactly that, I think it’s mostly already covered. Perhaps AI will help prove provenance of unregistered IP at some point, but I only commented to suggest that, while I agree that the value of publishing will increase dramatically (thanks to technology affording new toll booths), I believe the masters side will still be tremendously valuable because we vote with our trust when it comes to recording artists, not just market dynamics.
Wow I didn’t know that about the weekend! Insane! This is a great article! This is such a Wild West time for the music industry! I’m so unsure where we’re heading!
Late to this, but *very* glad to have stumbled on it. Every paragraph elicited an "Oh f**k they're right!" from me. Now, i'm not sure whether this helped stave off or contributed to another, albeit nascent, depression...about pursuing a career in music for the past (oh god has it been) 30+years. Get back to you on that.
i may have overlooked it but please say your five-way entity includes a standardised, mandatory metadata adoption. It is unbelievable how difficult it is to simply research, let alone attribute and pay, music credits and rights. They're nearly impossible to track for an average music consumer, and i have no idea why liner notes don't seem to exist anymore.
Anyway, i hope i don't retire or die before i see things change. Please keep me updated! And thank you for this. 👍
(But whoa, weird last comment from AI accuser guy!)
I'll read this in its entirety later but yeah it's a sorry state of affairs but maybe for the best. Boycott the biz!
I use soundcloud.com/stevegabe no download no sales complete freedom for $160 a year. I haven't been able to ever make a living but I keep working and at my age that's big! Singing in a big band doing the Sinatra thing too.
My "career" ended at that building in 2004. The label said to the artist "who's this, Gabe guy? We've got a lawyer for you Grable." *it's a little thing called conflict of interest go ask Blanche. I got a call from my friend "You're getting blown out right now." Yeah I had a real job so screw them. I stopped working in the biz except as favors to other artists no charge and fully committed to art. And I'm still close to those friends at least they were honest. They had the game all locked up and now everyone loses. Sounds like the new boss is the same as the old boss just more 💰 involved. Ill try to get through this now that I finally got that last backstabbing off my chest. Thanks Capitol Records!
Great article, thanks! "the question is no longer whether the majors can still deploy capital at scale. It’s whether that capital is worth the 80% equity take in your career forever". Great point. And the rest of the article provides the answer.
Always thought-provoking, so I featured this article in Unllimited Supply today. here's an excerpt of my response and the rest is in the pod.
"majors and large indies have leverage and relationships that independent vendors mostly cannot match.
And also there's a word for someone who signs a traditional 80 20 record deal with a label in 2026. That word is fool. It's axiomatic that as your homegrown audience increases, so does your deal making leverage with any label, indie or major.
And if you're commanding an audience large enough to catch the eye of a research a and r operation, like the Indies and the Majors have, you have a ton of leverage to strike a much better deal than the 80 20."
Terrific article. This is one of the most clear-eyed and on-the-money pieces I’ve read regarding the dissolution of the music industry’s "old world order" from the label perspective.
Your point about how AI enables the infinite saturation of the market with soundalikes is touching on something really important. While that is certainly true for new copyrights, the real intrigue lies in how the courts will ultimately define IP infringement for legacy catalogs. If AI can digitally recreate a Rolling Stones track—reproducing every instrument, nuance, and even the original "mistakes"—and then layer a perfect Mick Jagger-like vocal on top, how close is too close? (Assuming, of course, that Sir Mick hasn't already granted his blessing for a fee and that his contract with ABKCO didn't prevent him doing so).
The one area where I’d suggest further nuance is in the relative market valuation of Spotify versus the IP owners. If the majors refused to play tomorrow, Spotify would go down the drain; no one wants a streaming platform that offers only indie music and AI slop. However, if Spotify were to vanish, the record companies would be just fine. Amazon, Google, and Apple are all equally capable as presentation platforms.
Spotify is ultimately a redundant utility. While they have sleek interfaces and music discovery algorithms, those are not an insurmountable moat if the larger tech giants decide to get serious about them. The majors, however, are not redundant (even if their utility for new music is now nominal). Given this redundancy, Spotify feels significantly overvalued, whereas the majors' value is at least anchored in unique assets.
The long-term risk for the labels, of course, is that they eventually become mere custodians of an aging catalog. In the long view, it is difficult to predict how well that IP ages as it becomes increasingly distant from the cultural touchstones of the current generation.
A lot of good points here- thanks David. Let me ponder these…
Joel - great post. I love your summation at the end. You are right on point with that. The music industry will look completely different… and not soon enough :)
David - all great points. Re: courts, AI and copyright… soundalikes have been verboten for decades and I don’t see that changing. It’s stealing, and if that were to happen all sorts of other IP would be at risk. At least, let’s hope that never happens.
Thanks Joel! Appreciate the note
I appreciate this writing Joel. As someone who came up and stayed not on the major side of the music industry, but rather on the independent label side of the music industry (manager of several signed Indy bands, head of digital at a major independent unaffiliated with the majors, and a lifetime in music working with independent artists who started their own labels), I’m curious for your perspective of major vs. indie. Same? I would counter that the value of brand association in breaking bands with both with an existing following, or simply with one component (great songs, touring needs work) has almost always been significantly more valuable on the independent side of the deck, of course depending on the independent, and that absolutely makes a difference for the right artist with the right type of music. I would also counter that the independents have broken a lot of ground, both on deal models that go beyond the traditional 80-20 record deal (50-50 net deals, 50-50 net licensing deals, 80-20 deals coupled with better rates on digital, etc)., and also generally on artistic freedom. Yes, there are still plenty of indie label models that are standard 80-20, and these days more and more management companies are fulfilling components (or all) of the label role you present here, and they can be a long-term, significantly cheaper alternative that can be just as effective. Interesting piece.
I’m not sure there’s much a difference. Slightly different interests maybe. A bit more artist-friendly on the indie side of things, but the model isn’t entirely different between the two. I think the future will rely on a new model, that allows artists to keep their ownership but have a revenue share instead. Less strings attached, same economics of money in and money out. Thanks for the note Dick- I love comments like this!!
There’s no question that new models less centered around unfettered master ownership will emerge (have emerged!). Merge and Touch and Go were two label clients of mine that were net 50-50 deals (with master ownership, however). Your piece is a great thought provoker, and what’s most important about it for a new band coming up is to understand that they have options that didn’t exist when I was a young manager. As with any better deal, however, it’s important to be clear eyed about what you get (freedom, long term ownership), and what you don’t get (brand association, which can be a significant leg up). And what keeping ownership means in terms of doing the work. No matter how you slice it, someone has to do the work, and not every band (or team) understands the depth of work involved. It’s refreshing that so many new options exist for young and old bands alike. Look forward to reading more of what you write!
You're totally right. Once you get the capital then the real work starts. It'll be interesting to see artists start to prop up like actual businesses. Thought leaders like Russ have been doing it for years, but as we see more greasy deals behind the curtains. Starting an artist project is going to start to look more and more like starting a company, if it doesn't already. Thanks again Dick, appreciate you being here
"No matter how you slice it, someone has to do the work, and not every band (or team) understands the depth of work involved." - this 1000%. there is always a way, but someone has to do "the work."
So true
The power is in the indie space right now.
Sure is
Don’t disagree, just curious - who is doing playlist plugging for 1250 a quarter?
Good read! I read your other post about how the record deal is still operating on principles from 2005. That post + this write-up just reminds me how their is always disruption (streaming, AI etc.) but at the same time companies are consolidating and buying each other, so it just becomes more of the same.
Feels like another theme here is that the industry keeps building tools for scale, while audiences are still rewarding "good music". That gap is only getting wider.
Thats from the same post my friend. And yeah you’re so right and it’s so true. More tools doesn’t mean more fans.
Very interesting article
Cheers Austin
Hey Joel,
Fascinating read. I agree with most of the points, but we shouldn't forget that the majors are billon dollar moguls who will do everything to protect their power & money. So I think they will evolve eventually (late, as always). Saying the majors will be obsolete soon is a bit too easy imo.
And the majors do have long standing traditional 'I scratch your back if you scratch mine' relationships that shouldn't be underestimated - with DSP's, with radio's, ...
I didn’t say they’d be obsolete, I just said they won’t matter. And as I stated in the article, those relationships people I’m finding more and more are working contract or freelance on retainer. The need for the label itself is becoming less relevant by the day
Really really enjoy your takes, and not just bc I agree with most of them! I agree with 95% of this take so bear with me on this tiny pushback.
The vector I see left out of most forecasting and modeling is actually the most basic and often therefore the most invisible: human nature by way of evolutionary biology.
In the same way that the industry coined the death of the monoculture and was espousing the death of the megastar mid covid… immediately followed by olivia, sabrina, charli, chappel etc. I think their mistake wasn’t in the math, they were just missing the variable that underpins so much of the human experience, the need to fit in.
And for that reason alone, I suspect master recordings will retain tremendous value, and fans will always be rallying around cultural touch-points… because it feels safer to like the things other people also like.
I love a pushback. That’s where the progress happens. I agree that masters will always HAVE value, but when it’s not the definitive sole piece of work, naturally wouldn’t supply and demand kick in and it be worth a bit less? Food for thought
That’s my pushback, the function of the need to fit in IS the sorting mechanism that demands definitive sole pieces of work (almost always attached to a human) bc we determine safety via trust, and our brains are still running software from 10k yrs ago where trusting humans was more life or death than it is today.
It’s crazy that PROs and other IP registration company’s haven’t kept up with the integration of AI for things like this. It can likely be automated super simply. Along with royalty payouts, but that’s another conversation
Got it -how do you propose that we create this sorting mechanism? IRSCs should cover the validation surely
Exactly that, I think it’s mostly already covered. Perhaps AI will help prove provenance of unregistered IP at some point, but I only commented to suggest that, while I agree that the value of publishing will increase dramatically (thanks to technology affording new toll booths), I believe the masters side will still be tremendously valuable because we vote with our trust when it comes to recording artists, not just market dynamics.
Wow I didn’t know that about the weekend! Insane! This is a great article! This is such a Wild West time for the music industry! I’m so unsure where we’re heading!
Excellent read 🙏🏻 Thank you 🌷
Thank you
Late to this, but *very* glad to have stumbled on it. Every paragraph elicited an "Oh f**k they're right!" from me. Now, i'm not sure whether this helped stave off or contributed to another, albeit nascent, depression...about pursuing a career in music for the past (oh god has it been) 30+years. Get back to you on that.
i may have overlooked it but please say your five-way entity includes a standardised, mandatory metadata adoption. It is unbelievable how difficult it is to simply research, let alone attribute and pay, music credits and rights. They're nearly impossible to track for an average music consumer, and i have no idea why liner notes don't seem to exist anymore.
Anyway, i hope i don't retire or die before i see things change. Please keep me updated! And thank you for this. 👍
(But whoa, weird last comment from AI accuser guy!)
Never too late! Re: the metadata adoption, you might like my newest post about publishing, haha. Let me know how your journey goes and keep in touch
I'll read this in its entirety later but yeah it's a sorry state of affairs but maybe for the best. Boycott the biz!
I use soundcloud.com/stevegabe no download no sales complete freedom for $160 a year. I haven't been able to ever make a living but I keep working and at my age that's big! Singing in a big band doing the Sinatra thing too.
My "career" ended at that building in 2004. The label said to the artist "who's this, Gabe guy? We've got a lawyer for you Grable." *it's a little thing called conflict of interest go ask Blanche. I got a call from my friend "You're getting blown out right now." Yeah I had a real job so screw them. I stopped working in the biz except as favors to other artists no charge and fully committed to art. And I'm still close to those friends at least they were honest. They had the game all locked up and now everyone loses. Sounds like the new boss is the same as the old boss just more 💰 involved. Ill try to get through this now that I finally got that last backstabbing off my chest. Thanks Capitol Records!
Great article, thanks! "the question is no longer whether the majors can still deploy capital at scale. It’s whether that capital is worth the 80% equity take in your career forever". Great point. And the rest of the article provides the answer.
Appreciate you!
Always thought-provoking, so I featured this article in Unllimited Supply today. here's an excerpt of my response and the rest is in the pod.
"majors and large indies have leverage and relationships that independent vendors mostly cannot match.
And also there's a word for someone who signs a traditional 80 20 record deal with a label in 2026. That word is fool. It's axiomatic that as your homegrown audience increases, so does your deal making leverage with any label, indie or major.
And if you're commanding an audience large enough to catch the eye of a research a and r operation, like the Indies and the Majors have, you have a ton of leverage to strike a much better deal than the 80 20."
Nice one- thanks for talking about it on the pod!
https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=kev+nixon&crid=WI4F1FD2QQTC&sprefix=%2Caps%2C106&ref=nb_sb_ss_recent_2_0_recent
Read my books Joel and then let’s start the revolution…
Interested for sure..
Vital reading!
Thanks Robin