This is good! This applies not only to the listener economy, but across many creative economies, where popularity, "big backings" and celebrity are often mistaken for success. But a big audience does not equal revenue, not to mention loyalty that compounds way more at smaller scales.
This phenomenon happens in lots of industries. I work in real estate and there are agents with hundreds of thousands of TikTok followers who do a tiny amount of transactions. Meanwhile a veteran salesperson does ten times the sales without ever having an account anywhere. Likes, followers and subscribers are already low-quality metrics of success, worse than “reviews” on Amazon. Publish validated sales metrics instead - it’s a clearer signal of the number of people who took action to be engaged with the person.
This might just be an old boomer artist perspective but I see two problems. The first is there’s just too much music. If you factor the 100k unique uploads a day (last I checked) with the AI slop and fake artists it’s way too hard to cut through the noise.
The second is it’s very expensive to patronize music now. It’s funny, I got into a conversation with a friend about the show that I saw as a kid that changed my life (Stevie Wonder) and then we went on to enumerating all the shows we’d seen. It wasn’t lost on me that I’ve seen A LOT of shows, but mostly pre-2000s. It’s just unaffordable to most people in our current world to pay hundreds to thousands of dollars to see a show.
I’m not pursuing fame and fortune anymore, but these are the obstacles that I see for those that are.
You make some great points here Russ, and that’s actually the thesis of my next article that will be dropping early next week. Stay tuned and thanks for being here
Bruce Springsteen at the Saddledome? A complete yawnfest. The Sheepdogs at The Wildhorse Saloon during Stampede? A total blast. I hope artists start listening to you. It would be nice if newer artists could yank some dollars away from these old acts that just won't go away.
love this, people falsely assume that awareness translates to engagement while skipping all the middle steps where you actually have to do things to get people invested in the music and the artist itself. it’s mindblowing that followers are still even considered as something worth taking into consideration by anyone because at this point in social marketing we see it as a vanity metric and nothing more
Also, this ancient looking website is updated multiple times a day, with an unbelievable amount of data, discographies, comments, reviews, and much much more: https://www.progarchives.com
That is awesome. On a similar note, as of about a decade ago I’m in this Facebook group of about 3,000 people analyzing The Wall album by Pink Floyd and people still contribute to it almost every day about revelations they’ve had, memorabilia they collect, concepts and analogies, or real life things they see that remind them of certain components of the album. It’s a really beautiful thing.
The fanbase is global and the fandom is very deep. Prog fans are very devoted, and will happily support these bands, given the opportunity (95% are bands, only a few notable solo artists). I think the reason they don’t get booked or the tours aren’t as extensive is because they don’t have massive social followings like most current pop stars. However, prog fans will absolutely buy colored vinyl, tons of merch and physical copies of nearly every release. Cruise to the Edge, an annual progressive rock Caribbean cruise, sells out almost instantly every year.
A tool like you’re describing would certainly help promoters and venues and for that matter, mainstream labels, be much more aware of the commercial potential of booking these artists. And nearly all of these musicians are at the top of their craft in terms of technical ability and musical imagination. The prog fan base is not one that relies on this music for background, or random playlists. This music is the foreground of their lifestyle. I wish I could go into more detail, but I’m currently watching a really good hockey game right now lol
That bring said, i largely disagree with the "methods". We can't clear up this mess by manipulating more numbers. Listeners and fans aren't dumb, they aren't numbers, and the artist attitude matters. Otherwise it's just another bad number crunching advice.
Alia- what a brilliant read!! The Saxe example is a perfect case study for what we’re seeing in the market. Thanks for sharing.
I actually agree with you more than you might think in that fans aren’t just numbers. My point is that the gatekeepers and incumbents are looking at the wrong numbers to make decisions and leading to artists failing more often. I don’t think we should reduce art to data, or anywhere even closer to that. I just think that we need to arm artists with better data so they can prove the value of the connections/fans that they have to survive within the system that exists.
I always found it intriguing why some rappers whose streaming numbers might barely crack a million would be headlining the same size venue as another rapper whose numbers might be 10x their’s.
Totally- it’s unfortunately super common in music. Algorithms have the capability to inflate streams and follows from passive listeners at a very high level
There’s still something uncomfortable about the profit end point or focus of the metrics .. I’m not sure how to articulate it. I appreciate the Fred again part fully highlights the power of community or focus on authentic connection… I guess I’m trying to work out beyond a way to recognise earning potential of artists, is there a way to use this thinking to build models or systems that can create these engaged fan ecosystems. The first read feels like a analysis tool to find artists who can make [insert person or company] money, but what’s interesting me is how to decode your idea to work out how it could be used to build these kind of engagement fan ecosystems, rather than just recognise them (in the same way a data label will use streaming data to predict potential future earnings of songs then want to sign)
Okay, heard. There’s plenty of models and systems put in place to help artists build communities; Discord, Private channels, mailing lists, even private events IRL.
The analysis tool is simply a way to gauge how well an artist is doing this. I think that data like social media followers and streams are things that artists chase because it looks sexy and gives them clout. But the fact of the matter is that these gauges of success are only benefitting the platforms themselves. Spotify and IG make money off of users and market share, so when artists aim to drive more people to their pages or profiles, there’s no kickback that goes to them, which paradoxically is what most are aiming for.
I guess it can lead back to how record sales could gauge the success level of an artist when selling records actually put money in the artist’s pocket. But with the value of music inherently becoming basically zero, they need to be focusing on their true fans in order to become financially sustainable businesses.
Thanks for sticking with me through my ramble…does that make more sense?
I’ve been talking about aspects of this for a long time. If I’m at someone’s house and I ask people who they’re listening to, they NEVER know.. most people are passive consumers of everything.
It’s important to know that that in itself is organic marketing. If a friend tells me about a product and how great it is I’m 100x more likely to purchase or consume it than if i see it on an ad. Listen to them and talk to them and it’ll pay out exponentially.
Chasing 'growth' at all costs has ruined everything in most businesses.
Focusing on authentic relationships and the boring fundamentals always make so much more sense - but in an age of numbers and dashboards I guess people will always steer for the high numbers.
This is good! This applies not only to the listener economy, but across many creative economies, where popularity, "big backings" and celebrity are often mistaken for success. But a big audience does not equal revenue, not to mention loyalty that compounds way more at smaller scales.
You’re absolutely right about that
This would make for more interesting festival lineups. Behold The Coachella organisers discussing how they assemble their lineups. Vanity metrics! Which is why the festival now feels less like a music festival and more like an opportunity for influencers to take selfies in the desert: https://web.archive.org/web/20170411030214/http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/04/17/the-mastermind-behind-coachella
Absolutely
Bandcamp would like a word
Haha
This phenomenon happens in lots of industries. I work in real estate and there are agents with hundreds of thousands of TikTok followers who do a tiny amount of transactions. Meanwhile a veteran salesperson does ten times the sales without ever having an account anywhere. Likes, followers and subscribers are already low-quality metrics of success, worse than “reviews” on Amazon. Publish validated sales metrics instead - it’s a clearer signal of the number of people who took action to be engaged with the person.
You nailed it. Glad it can be an analogy for all parts of business. Thanks for the note
This might just be an old boomer artist perspective but I see two problems. The first is there’s just too much music. If you factor the 100k unique uploads a day (last I checked) with the AI slop and fake artists it’s way too hard to cut through the noise.
The second is it’s very expensive to patronize music now. It’s funny, I got into a conversation with a friend about the show that I saw as a kid that changed my life (Stevie Wonder) and then we went on to enumerating all the shows we’d seen. It wasn’t lost on me that I’ve seen A LOT of shows, but mostly pre-2000s. It’s just unaffordable to most people in our current world to pay hundreds to thousands of dollars to see a show.
I’m not pursuing fame and fortune anymore, but these are the obstacles that I see for those that are.
You make some great points here Russ, and that’s actually the thesis of my next article that will be dropping early next week. Stay tuned and thanks for being here
Bruce Springsteen at the Saddledome? A complete yawnfest. The Sheepdogs at The Wildhorse Saloon during Stampede? A total blast. I hope artists start listening to you. It would be nice if newer artists could yank some dollars away from these old acts that just won't go away.
Ha! Such a good comparison. Thanks for the note
love this, people falsely assume that awareness translates to engagement while skipping all the middle steps where you actually have to do things to get people invested in the music and the artist itself. it’s mindblowing that followers are still even considered as something worth taking into consideration by anyone because at this point in social marketing we see it as a vanity metric and nothing more
You’re absolutely right. Makes no sense
My favorite genre, progressive rock, and all those involved in it should look at this type of thinking very very closely
Why progressive rock specifically?
Also, this ancient looking website is updated multiple times a day, with an unbelievable amount of data, discographies, comments, reviews, and much much more: https://www.progarchives.com
That is awesome. On a similar note, as of about a decade ago I’m in this Facebook group of about 3,000 people analyzing The Wall album by Pink Floyd and people still contribute to it almost every day about revelations they’ve had, memorabilia they collect, concepts and analogies, or real life things they see that remind them of certain components of the album. It’s a really beautiful thing.
The global fan base is there. It just needs to be cultivated much better than it has been.
The fanbase is global and the fandom is very deep. Prog fans are very devoted, and will happily support these bands, given the opportunity (95% are bands, only a few notable solo artists). I think the reason they don’t get booked or the tours aren’t as extensive is because they don’t have massive social followings like most current pop stars. However, prog fans will absolutely buy colored vinyl, tons of merch and physical copies of nearly every release. Cruise to the Edge, an annual progressive rock Caribbean cruise, sells out almost instantly every year.
A tool like you’re describing would certainly help promoters and venues and for that matter, mainstream labels, be much more aware of the commercial potential of booking these artists. And nearly all of these musicians are at the top of their craft in terms of technical ability and musical imagination. The prog fan base is not one that relies on this music for background, or random playlists. This music is the foreground of their lifestyle. I wish I could go into more detail, but I’m currently watching a really good hockey game right now lol
Boom!!! You nailed it- you’re so right.
Thanks for bringing the issue to light, I covered it last year as a part of my investigative journalism project on the music industry: https://signaltonoisernd.substack.com/p/why-are-award-winning-musicians-struggling
That bring said, i largely disagree with the "methods". We can't clear up this mess by manipulating more numbers. Listeners and fans aren't dumb, they aren't numbers, and the artist attitude matters. Otherwise it's just another bad number crunching advice.
Alia- what a brilliant read!! The Saxe example is a perfect case study for what we’re seeing in the market. Thanks for sharing.
I actually agree with you more than you might think in that fans aren’t just numbers. My point is that the gatekeepers and incumbents are looking at the wrong numbers to make decisions and leading to artists failing more often. I don’t think we should reduce art to data, or anywhere even closer to that. I just think that we need to arm artists with better data so they can prove the value of the connections/fans that they have to survive within the system that exists.
I always found it intriguing why some rappers whose streaming numbers might barely crack a million would be headlining the same size venue as another rapper whose numbers might be 10x their’s.
Totally- it’s unfortunately super common in music. Algorithms have the capability to inflate streams and follows from passive listeners at a very high level
I like this piece but it think it’s lacks some nuance which is interactions .. the dash board metrics mostly is about financial capture of fandom..
It feels like it’s missing more focus on the interaction / comments / community factor or co creation even in music uses
Not sure I follow your train of thought but thanks for contributing
There’s still something uncomfortable about the profit end point or focus of the metrics .. I’m not sure how to articulate it. I appreciate the Fred again part fully highlights the power of community or focus on authentic connection… I guess I’m trying to work out beyond a way to recognise earning potential of artists, is there a way to use this thinking to build models or systems that can create these engaged fan ecosystems. The first read feels like a analysis tool to find artists who can make [insert person or company] money, but what’s interesting me is how to decode your idea to work out how it could be used to build these kind of engagement fan ecosystems, rather than just recognise them (in the same way a data label will use streaming data to predict potential future earnings of songs then want to sign)
Okay, heard. There’s plenty of models and systems put in place to help artists build communities; Discord, Private channels, mailing lists, even private events IRL.
The analysis tool is simply a way to gauge how well an artist is doing this. I think that data like social media followers and streams are things that artists chase because it looks sexy and gives them clout. But the fact of the matter is that these gauges of success are only benefitting the platforms themselves. Spotify and IG make money off of users and market share, so when artists aim to drive more people to their pages or profiles, there’s no kickback that goes to them, which paradoxically is what most are aiming for.
I guess it can lead back to how record sales could gauge the success level of an artist when selling records actually put money in the artist’s pocket. But with the value of music inherently becoming basically zero, they need to be focusing on their true fans in order to become financially sustainable businesses.
Thanks for sticking with me through my ramble…does that make more sense?
I’ve been talking about aspects of this for a long time. If I’m at someone’s house and I ask people who they’re listening to, they NEVER know.. most people are passive consumers of everything.
Bingo!!
a credit score for fandom?? jfc
Very interesting. I also believe there are a lot of lessons here for small independent specialty retailers.
"Customers" are buy things - preferably on sale.
"Fans" buy you. And talk about you to people in their circles.
Cultivating fans is way more critical for your long term prospects of your business. Focus on them, listen to them, ignore the rest.
Commenting the same thing here as I did on your restack so my readers can also see … Ha!
Thisssss!!!
It’s important to know that that in itself is organic marketing. If a friend tells me about a product and how great it is I’m 100x more likely to purchase or consume it than if i see it on an ad. Listen to them and talk to them and it’ll pay out exponentially.
A great job exposing optics versus reality!
You got it
Such an interesting read.
Chasing 'growth' at all costs has ruined everything in most businesses.
Focusing on authentic relationships and the boring fundamentals always make so much more sense - but in an age of numbers and dashboards I guess people will always steer for the high numbers.
You’re right about that- it’s not sexy and it’s a lot more work, but that’s where the ROI starts paying off